As the Democrats in the US are still trying to decide who they should back to run against Trump in 2020, they may want to take note of what has just happened in the UK. In short, a very unpopular leader of the country, viewed by many as an inveterate liar, notorious womaniser, with no compunction about insulting minorities, possessing a dreadful record in public policy failures, unconcerned with conflicts of interests, has just achieved a substantial electoral victory against his opponent.
Yes, after a decade of ruinous right-wing Conservative rule, the UK had handed Boris Johnson’s Party a solid majority in the House of Commons – not because Johnson had been much more effective in winning over the support of voters than his predecessor [he secured 43.6% of votes cast compared with Theresa May who obtained 42.4%], but because his challenger, Jeremy Corbyn, alienated so many people that the Labour Party ended up losing seats it had previously held for decades. UK commentators are busy pointing out the reasons for this, but there are four lessons that are particularly relevant for anyone wanting to get Trump voted out in 2020.
First, personal popularity is important. However unpopular the incumbent is, if the challenger is even more unpopular with the public, the latter will lose. There is no point in fielding some ideologically ‘ideal’ or establishment-friendly candidate, if that person is unable to get people to like her/him. Crucially, if successive opinion polls find someone less popular than the unpopular incumbent, take that as a big warning sign.
Secondly, policies matter if they register. Labour put forward many policies that would have helped people, old and young, get better support where that is needed. Perception of affordability is not actually a problem since the Tories have been throwing money over Brexit and those who want Brexit just shrug. If people want something, they believe it will be affordable in the long run. The problem is having too many policies that they barely register with voters. Instead of getting voters to connect with one or two major policy offers, Labour’s proliferation of policy proposals became a blur.
Thirdly, you need a clear and memorable message. Johnson ran with ‘Get Brexit Done’ and that rallied enough people to back him. Recent polls have shown that most people are not keen on Brexit, but Corbyn’s message was that he would negotiate a different Brexit deal, hold a referendum, and he would neither back that deal nor support ‘remain’ in the referendum. Aside from the Brexit fudge, he did not come up with one core message that resonated with people to rally them to back him.
Finally, you must build alliances rather than split potential support into antagonistic factions. The anti-Tory parties – Labour, Liberal Democrats, and Greens – achieved a higher share of the votes than the Conservative Party, but they were split, and under a first-past-the-post system (which prevails in the US too), that let the Tories in. Despite requests from others, Labour refused to form tactical alliances, and seats they and another anti-Conservative party might have won ended up with the Tories. If factions within the Democrats continue to attack candidates other than their own and breed long term resentment that deprives the eventual nominee from getting all the support of Democrats, that would only benefit Trump.
To beat Trump in 2020, Democrats should therefore bear this in mind. You may not like the way people think, but you need someone who is: more popular (or certainly not more unpopular) than Trump in the public mind; have two or three major policy offers that would resonate with the majority of people and not get bogged down with generating countless policy proposals; can articulate a clear and strong message that people can readily relate to (having a decently paid job would be high on that list); and able to bring factions together instead of alienating them. Make those your selection criteria.
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