As the Democrats in the US are still trying to decide who they should back to run against Trump in 2020, they may want to take note of what has just happened in the UK. In short, a very unpopular leader of the country, viewed by many as an inveterate liar, notorious womaniser, with no compunction about insulting minorities, possessing a dreadful record in public policy failures, unconcerned with conflicts of interests, has just achieved a substantial electoral victory against his opponent.
Yes, after a decade of ruinous right-wing Conservative rule, the UK had handed Boris Johnson’s Party a solid majority in the House of Commons – not because Johnson had been much more effective in winning over the support of voters than his predecessor [he secured 43.6% of votes cast compared with Theresa May who obtained 42.4%], but because his challenger, Jeremy Corbyn, alienated so many people that the Labour Party ended up losing seats it had previously held for decades. UK commentators are busy pointing out the reasons for this, but there are four lessons that are particularly relevant for anyone wanting to get Trump voted out in 2020.
First, personal popularity is important. However unpopular the incumbent is, if the challenger is even more unpopular with the public, the latter will lose. There is no point in fielding some ideologically ‘ideal’ or establishment-friendly candidate, if that person is unable to get people to like her/him. Crucially, if successive opinion polls find someone less popular than the unpopular incumbent, take that as a big warning sign.
Secondly, policies matter if they register. Labour put forward many policies that would have helped people, old and young, get better support where that is needed. Perception of affordability is not actually a problem since the Tories have been throwing money over Brexit and those who want Brexit just shrug. If people want something, they believe it will be affordable in the long run. The problem is having too many policies that they barely register with voters. Instead of getting voters to connect with one or two major policy offers, Labour’s proliferation of policy proposals became a blur.
Thirdly, you need a clear and memorable message. Johnson ran with ‘Get Brexit Done’ and that rallied enough people to back him. Recent polls have shown that most people are not keen on Brexit, but Corbyn’s message was that he would negotiate a different Brexit deal, hold a referendum, and he would neither back that deal nor support ‘remain’ in the referendum. Aside from the Brexit fudge, he did not come up with one core message that resonated with people to rally them to back him.
Finally, you must build alliances rather than split potential support into antagonistic factions. The anti-Tory parties – Labour, Liberal Democrats, and Greens – achieved a higher share of the votes than the Conservative Party, but they were split, and under a first-past-the-post system (which prevails in the US too), that let the Tories in. Despite requests from others, Labour refused to form tactical alliances, and seats they and another anti-Conservative party might have won ended up with the Tories. If factions within the Democrats continue to attack candidates other than their own and breed long term resentment that deprives the eventual nominee from getting all the support of Democrats, that would only benefit Trump.
To beat Trump in 2020, Democrats should therefore bear this in mind. You may not like the way people think, but you need someone who is: more popular (or certainly not more unpopular) than Trump in the public mind; have two or three major policy offers that would resonate with the majority of people and not get bogged down with generating countless policy proposals; can articulate a clear and strong message that people can readily relate to (having a decently paid job would be high on that list); and able to bring factions together instead of alienating them. Make those your selection criteria.
Friday 13 December 2019
Sunday 1 December 2019
Remember, Remember, Vote Them Out in December: here's a 10-point reminder
After a decade of enduring ever-worsening damages from Tory rule, what should we say to fellow citizens who are still wondering if they might give another chance to a Con-led (Farage-backed) Government to help the superrich become more powerful and heap misery on everyone else? Here are 10 things to remind them of:
[1] Remember they imposed austerity on the poorest and most vulnerable people in society, while giving tax cuts to the richest. For all their pretence that it would help to revive the economy, they only made things worse because of their wastefulness over ill-conceived projects, and the inevitable weakening of consumer demands through greater job insecurity.
[2] Remember they actually couldn’t care less about social or economic stability for our country, as revealed by their willingness to run a risky referendum on our EU membership when the process was infested with lies and corrupted by illegal campaigning, resulting in endless political in-fighting and business chaos that are deeply damaging for everyone.
[3] Remember they don’t even bother to make any claim about adhering to ‘sound financial management’ anymore. They are breaking their own borrowing targets; they have squandered billions over ‘no deal planning’ for the sake of a futile bluff (when business leaders have repeatedly said that the so-called ‘planning’ would do nothing to mitigate a ‘no deal’ Brexit disaster); and they won’t say how much their a-new-pledge-a-day is likely to cost.
[4] Remember how they keep making promises about ending the severe underfunding of public services, but never deliver any new money in practice. NHS is starved of the necessary investment, and forced to make ‘efficiency savings’ which are then handed over to the Treasury for tax cuts for the rich. Under the last Labour government, satisfaction with the NHS reached an all-time high; under the Tories, it has plummeted to an all-time low.
[5] Remember the disdain with which they hold people, especially those who find themselves in dire circumstances. Victims of the Grenfell fire were blamed for their lack of common sense, while there was no mention of drastic cuts to the fire service under Boris Johnson when he was Mayor of London. Homelessness has continued to get worse. The sick and disabled were told they were fit for work and had their benefits cut off, leaving them to starve, and some to commit suicide.
[6] Remember how since they won power in 2010 they have cut funding to local authorities by 50%, directly causing the crippling deterioration of services in support of social care, child protection, libraries, education, street cleansing, and countless other functions on which all but the wealthy elite rely.
[7] Remember how the fall in crime under the last Labour government has under the Tories been replaced by cuts in police numbers and a relentless rise in crime. Violent crime is increasing at an alarming rate; prison numbers and conditions are worsening; and the move to privatise probation services has proven to be a costly disaster.
[8] Remember whatever lip service they might pay to tackling the climate crisis, the Tories always put the interests of their fossil fuel donors first. They have cut support for renewable energy, and pushed forward with fracking even though 99.99% of respondents to a government consultation opposed it.
[9] Remember they have been at the forefront of stirring up anti-immigrant sentiments, despising multiculturalism, and instigating the ill treatment and deportation of legitimate migrants from the Windrush generation to more recent EU citizens in Britain. Alongside the sharp rise in hate crime, desperately needed workers from abroad – nurses, doctors, carers, scientists, etc. – are officiously prevented from coming here.
[10] Last but not least, remember the financial deregulation idolised by the Conservatives and pushed through by Thatcher to allow banks and building societies to lend out previously ring-fenced savers’ money without any due constraint? The deregulated lending led to the 2008 financial crash, jeopardised savers’ money, and bailouts for careless lenders. But the Tories have remained unrepentant and refused to rectify the deregulatory flaws. Without effective regulation, another crisis will hit us all again.
[1] Remember they imposed austerity on the poorest and most vulnerable people in society, while giving tax cuts to the richest. For all their pretence that it would help to revive the economy, they only made things worse because of their wastefulness over ill-conceived projects, and the inevitable weakening of consumer demands through greater job insecurity.
[2] Remember they actually couldn’t care less about social or economic stability for our country, as revealed by their willingness to run a risky referendum on our EU membership when the process was infested with lies and corrupted by illegal campaigning, resulting in endless political in-fighting and business chaos that are deeply damaging for everyone.
[3] Remember they don’t even bother to make any claim about adhering to ‘sound financial management’ anymore. They are breaking their own borrowing targets; they have squandered billions over ‘no deal planning’ for the sake of a futile bluff (when business leaders have repeatedly said that the so-called ‘planning’ would do nothing to mitigate a ‘no deal’ Brexit disaster); and they won’t say how much their a-new-pledge-a-day is likely to cost.
[4] Remember how they keep making promises about ending the severe underfunding of public services, but never deliver any new money in practice. NHS is starved of the necessary investment, and forced to make ‘efficiency savings’ which are then handed over to the Treasury for tax cuts for the rich. Under the last Labour government, satisfaction with the NHS reached an all-time high; under the Tories, it has plummeted to an all-time low.
[5] Remember the disdain with which they hold people, especially those who find themselves in dire circumstances. Victims of the Grenfell fire were blamed for their lack of common sense, while there was no mention of drastic cuts to the fire service under Boris Johnson when he was Mayor of London. Homelessness has continued to get worse. The sick and disabled were told they were fit for work and had their benefits cut off, leaving them to starve, and some to commit suicide.
[6] Remember how since they won power in 2010 they have cut funding to local authorities by 50%, directly causing the crippling deterioration of services in support of social care, child protection, libraries, education, street cleansing, and countless other functions on which all but the wealthy elite rely.
[7] Remember how the fall in crime under the last Labour government has under the Tories been replaced by cuts in police numbers and a relentless rise in crime. Violent crime is increasing at an alarming rate; prison numbers and conditions are worsening; and the move to privatise probation services has proven to be a costly disaster.
[8] Remember whatever lip service they might pay to tackling the climate crisis, the Tories always put the interests of their fossil fuel donors first. They have cut support for renewable energy, and pushed forward with fracking even though 99.99% of respondents to a government consultation opposed it.
[9] Remember they have been at the forefront of stirring up anti-immigrant sentiments, despising multiculturalism, and instigating the ill treatment and deportation of legitimate migrants from the Windrush generation to more recent EU citizens in Britain. Alongside the sharp rise in hate crime, desperately needed workers from abroad – nurses, doctors, carers, scientists, etc. – are officiously prevented from coming here.
[10] Last but not least, remember the financial deregulation idolised by the Conservatives and pushed through by Thatcher to allow banks and building societies to lend out previously ring-fenced savers’ money without any due constraint? The deregulated lending led to the 2008 financial crash, jeopardised savers’ money, and bailouts for careless lenders. But the Tories have remained unrepentant and refused to rectify the deregulatory flaws. Without effective regulation, another crisis will hit us all again.
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