Gambling with the UK’s Future

To lose one gamble may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose two looks like carelessness; but to lose three is surely utter incompetence.

In June 2016, the Tory Prime Minister, David Cameron, declared that the best thing for UK’s prosperity and stability would be for the UK to remain in the European Union. He had a mandate to run the country and that was his considered judgement. But instead of running the country accordingly, he opted to tackle the party political threat from UKIP by arranging for a referendum on the UK’s EU membership. He thought a victory would minimise future challenges to Conservative seats from UKIP candidates. By his own admission, he was convinced that withdrawing from the EU would be bad for the UK and cause serious uncertainty. But for the sake of securing party political advantage, he gambled with holding the referendum anyway, with no contingency plan, and he lost.

Cameron resigned, and was succeeded by Theresa May, who thought that the best way to endear herself to the ardently pro-Brexit xenophobic press would be to rush ahead by triggering Article 50. She had no plan for what agreement to seek or how to obtain it. But in March 2017, she went ahead anyway, knowing that once Article 50 was triggered, the UK would be out of the EU in two years’ time, and if no deal had been reached with the EU by then, the UK could be in serious trouble in terms of the negative impact on trade, security and scientific cooperation. The clock started ticking, uncertainty began to mount. May’s bet was that her pushing Article 50 would rally the country behind her as the trusted negotiator. As it was, it caused such alarm that more and more people became intensely concerned with her approach to Brexit.

So a year on from the EU referendum, Theresa May decided to double down and call a snap election. She had inherited a slim majority from Cameron, and thought she could win a landslide with the Conservatives far ahead of Labour in the opinion polls. Like Cameron, she did not for a moment think that the country’s stability should come before her party political gains. With an atrocious campaign, during which the self-styled tough talker refused to engage in public debates, May’s gamble fell flat. Instead of winning a much bigger majority, she ended up with no majority at all. Like an annual ritual, a Tory Prime Minister had once again sunk sterling and pushed the country into deep uncertainties and economic instability.

The Brexit process is still counting down. The country is more divided than ever as to what deal we should strike with the EU. But it is hard not to agree that the worst possible deal for Britons would be to leave our fate in the hands of clueless gamblers.